Possible scenario
Forceful Policy Pivot
25% Chance
Authorities decide that the bear-market signal threatens confidence in consumption, housing and bank balance sheets. A coordinated package becomes plausible if the selloff starts to impair financing conditions or household sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.5%
- Technology +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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