Possible scenario
Marshall Recovers Late
33% Chance
Roger Marshall benefits from late partisan consolidation in a state that still leans Republican at the federal level. The tossup rating proves accurate about the race's competitiveness, but not enough for Hamilton to overcome Kansas's baseline Senate preference.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.