Possible scenario
Hamilton Breaks Through
42% Chance
Adam Hamilton converts the tossup rating into a narrow Democratic pickup opportunity, helped by abortion-rights salience, Laura Kelly's 2022 coalition, and unusual Republican crossover support. National Democratic money keeps the race competitive while Roger Marshall struggles to consolidate suburban moderates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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