Possible scenario
Limited Iranian Retaliation
30% Chance
Iran retaliates below the level of a sustained war, using drones, missiles, mines, or cyber tools to raise shipping costs and demonstrate deterrence. Washington responds defensively and with additional seizures, while both sides leave space for intermediaries to prevent a wider conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.