Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
18% Chance
Regional mediators press Washington and Tehran to reduce naval risk while preserving U.S. leverage over Iranian exports. A temporary inspection pause or monitored-cargo arrangement lowers the immediate probability of a Hormuz clash.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.