Possible scenario
Controlled Maritime Pressure
38% Chance
The U.S. Navy continues interdicting Iran-linked crude cargoes while escorting large commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran denounces the operation but avoids direct attacks on U.S. ships, keeping the crisis below the threshold of open war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Services -1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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