Possible scenario
Demand Slowdown Emerges
20% Chance
A darker outcome is that the sentiment decline proves to be an early signal of weaker real consumption. Markets then shift from inflation anxiety toward concerns about margins, inventories and credit quality.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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