Possible scenario
Orderly AI Derisking
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a controlled reduction in AI-equity exposure by pensions, superannuation funds and multi-asset managers rather than a disorderly selloff. The RBA warning reinforces existing concerns flagged by APRA-style risk teams, but investors treat it as a valuation discipline signal rather than a systemic event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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