Possible scenario
Correction Gains Speed
25% Chance
The RBA's estimate of a potential 2.4% spending drag becomes a focal point for global risk managers already concerned about leverage and pension concentration. Selling becomes more correlated across AI semiconductors, cloud platforms and high-duration growth stocks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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