Possible scenario
Fallout Quickly Contained
38% Chance
The most likely path is that Senate Republicans treat the accusation as an embarrassing but survivable hearing misstep. Schmitt’s office narrows the claim, avoids repeating the perjury allegation in formal filings, and the story fades into partisan committee record fights.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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