Possible scenario
War Policy Hardens
25% Chance
The administration responds to criticism by emphasizing resolve, arguing that hesitation would embolden Tehran. This increases the chance of additional U.S. strikes or Iranian retaliation, keeping energy and defense risk premia elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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