Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
The controversy strengthens arguments inside Washington that the war must be narrowed or converted into leverage for a deal. Qatar, Oman, and European governments use the political opening to revive indirect talks on enrichment limits, inspections, and sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.4%
- Energy -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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