Possible scenario
Oversight Deal Emerges
20% Chance
Ukraine and congressional Republicans converge on a face-saving oversight package, including expanded end-use monitoring and public reporting. Trump can claim stricter controls while Zelensky preserves core military support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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