Possible scenario
Market Disruption Widens
20% Chance
Forensic work uncovers more unauthorized trades, forcing some brokers to delay settlement reconciliation and tighten account access. The event remains far below a systemic banking crisis, but it temporarily weighs on Japanese financials, online brokerage platforms, and fintech vendors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.8%
- Technology -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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