Possible scenario
Strikes Continue
29% Chance
Zelenskyy may continue refinery strikes if Moscow refuses to spare Ukrainian energy sites, especially given domestic pressure to keep leverage against Russia. This keeps diesel supply risk elevated and complicates Trump's attempt to turn the diesel deal into a peace-track confidence measure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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