Possible scenario
Energy Ceasefire Advances
38% Chance
The most likely path is a narrow energy-focused ceasefire because Trump has already linked diesel supply, Lukoil-related talks, and pressure on Zelenskyy. Kyiv may accept a limited halt if Moscow reciprocates by sparing Ukrainian power and gas infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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