Possible scenario
Alliance Friction Deepens
19% Chance
The diesel deal could become a sharper U.S.-Ukraine dispute if Trump treats Zelenskyy's refusal as defiance and ties support to an end to refinery attacks. That would raise political risk around military aid and coordination, even if it does not immediately change battlefield conditions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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