Possible scenario
Risk Gaps Persist
25% Chance
The public report confirms that some internal models still carry unresolved cyber, autonomy, or misuse risks. OpenAI avoids a full crisis, but enterprise customers and regulators treat the disclosure as evidence that prior internal warnings were material.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Business Services -0.5%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.6%
- NVDA-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.