Possible scenario
Governance Credibility Restored
40% Chance
OpenAI's first public risk report is received as a credible step toward satisfying the Trump accord's audit and board-oversight requirements. The company contains reputational damage from the Astra restriction, monitoring-warning allegations, and safety-team departures without major new disclosures.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT+1.4%
- NVDA+0.9%
- MS+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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