Possible scenario
Negotiated Partial Resumption
20% Chance
Iraq negotiates a compliance framework with the U.S. Treasury that permits some flights not involving sanctioned aircraft, crews or cargo. This reduces pressure on Iraqi airports while keeping most sanctioned Iranian carriers under constraints.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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