Possible scenario
Iraq Maintains Suspension
45% Chance
Iraq keeps the airport restrictions in place to avoid U.S. secondary sanctions on airport operators, ground handlers, banks and fuel suppliers. Iran-linked carriers lose direct Iraqi access, while passengers shift to land routes or third-country connections through Turkey, Qatar or the UAE.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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