Possible scenario
Sanctions Concerns Block Launch
20% Chance
Western sanctions risk becomes the decisive constraint. The National Bank withholds operating approval or freezes the applications after concerns that crypto banking could be used to bypass U.S. and EU restrictions on Belarus and Russia.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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