Possible scenario
Audit Proceeds Smoothly
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Anthropic's employee-level access arrangement functions as intended, giving METR enough visibility to assess agent-control risks without disrupting operations. This would reinforce the emerging model of embedded third-party AI safety testing rather than immediate federal intervention.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Business Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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