Possible scenario
Democrats Narrow Gap
30% Chance
The fundraising advantage materially improves Democratic competitiveness but does not clearly overcome the Senate map. Democrats protect their most vulnerable incumbents and force late GOP spending into states Republicans expected to defend more cheaply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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