Possible scenario
Democrats Flip Senate
20% Chance
The record Democratic fundraising wave becomes a genuine electoral wave, helping the party overcome the difficult 2026 map. Democratic wins in Georgia, Texas, and at least one additional battleground give the party Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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