Possible scenario
Relief Rally Forms
30% Chance
After an 18.8% quarterly drop, valuation-sensitive investors may buy Korean large caps if policy rhetoric improves or tariff fears stop worsening. The rebound would likely be sharp but fragile, led by the same semiconductor names that drove the selloff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.5%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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