Possible scenario
Student Protests Expand
25% Chance
The teen's injury becomes a national symbol of police violence, reinforcing Amnesty International's allegations and drawing broader youth, teacher, and civil-liberties groups into the streets. The government's suspension is viewed as too narrow unless paired with accountability and wider crowd-control reform.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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