Possible scenario
Ceasefire Momentum Grows
25% Chance
The moral and political pressure created by famine warnings, hostage fatigue and Obama’s intervention increases incentives for a humanitarian pause. Netanyahu still faces resistance from far-right coalition partners, but a limited deal becomes more plausible than a comprehensive political settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.