Possible scenario
Unrest Spreads Further
25% Chance
The Gulf trip fails to produce a credible near-term price cut and protests expand from urban riots into transport and refinery disruption. The risk is not systemic globally, but it would create a material European political and energy shock over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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