Possible scenario
Uneven Stabilization Emerges
20% Chance
The subsidy gives a limited boost to first-time buyers in wealthier cities, but lower-tier inventory and income uncertainty keep the national recovery fragile. Markets begin to differentiate sharply between state-backed developers and more leveraged private names.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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