Possible scenario
Subsidy Seen Insufficient
40% Chance
Investors conclude the first-home mortgage subsidy is too narrow to reverse weak buyer confidence, especially after years of falling sales and developer distress. Property shares remain under pressure as markets wait for stronger fiscal support, inventory purchases, or wider mortgage easing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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