Possible scenario
Beijing Expands Support
30% Chance
The stock-market decline prompts expectations that Beijing will follow the mortgage subsidy with broader demand and inventory measures. Investors anticipate lower down payments, more local purchase relaxations, or direct funding for home inventory absorption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +2.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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