Possible scenario
Energy Inflation Persists
30% Chance
The September surprise proves mainly energy-related, consistent with prior pressure from the Iran war and European power markets. Brent, gas-linked electricity and refining margins remain the main transmission channels rather than broad domestic overheating.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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