Possible scenario
Gaza Fighting Resumes
20% Chance
A less likely but serious outcome is that the killing becomes the trigger for renewed Hamas fire and Israeli strikes, freezing the hostage-release channel. The conflict remains centered on Gaza rather than becoming a broad regional war, keeping the market reaction material but not crisis-sized.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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