Ceasefire Largely Holds

The most likely path is that Hamas condemns the killing but does not abandon the ceasefire because Qatar, Egypt, and the Trump administration press both sides to preserve the hostage-release framework. Israel frames the strike as a narrow action against a commander directly tied to hostage captivity, limiting pressure for a wider campaign.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.