Possible scenario
Launch-Day Sellout
45% Chance
Limited walk-in inventory disappears quickly at major Apple Store locations, reinforcing the view that iPhone Duo demand is well ahead of initial supply. The 82-day average shipping delay remains the central investor signal, with the walk-in allocation functioning mostly as launch-day marketing rather than meaningful supply relief.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- AAPL+2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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