Possible scenario
Repeated Border Incidents
30% Chance
A further Russian drone wave near Poland keeps the border region tense without triggering a direct NATO-Russia clash. This would sustain air-defense deployments and cause a somewhat larger, but still contained, risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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