Possible scenario
Managed Tech Détente
42% Chance
Trump and Xi use the CEO dinner to signal that the trade truce will include a limited technology channel rather than a broad rollback of controls. This is the most likely path because both sides gain from lower tensions while Washington can preserve national-security guardrails.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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