Possible scenario
Export-Control Backlash
18% Chance
Congressional China hawks and national-security officials push back against any perception that Trump is trading AI restrictions for market access. The risk is not a full breakdown of the truce, but a near-term reversal in tech optimism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.6%
- -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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