Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
25% Chance
The Flydubai case becomes part of a broader UAE-Iran confrontation following missile and drone activity and the Bu Hasa oil-field strike. Abu Dhabi and partners respond with military deployments or limited strikes, but both sides still try to keep the conflict below the threshold of full war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.