Possible scenario
Investigation Cools Crisis
20% Chance
The UAE investigation remains cautious or back-channel diplomacy reduces the need for public escalation. This scenario is plausible because Gulf states, including Qatar and Oman, have strong incentives to preserve air corridors, energy flows, and investor confidence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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