Possible scenario
Warsh Stays Patient
45% Chance
Kevin Warsh uses his final pre-blackout speech to emphasize inflation risks without endorsing an immediate October move. Markets treat the remarks as consistent with a data-dependent Fed that is not ready to force through another hike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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