Possible scenario
Hawkish Speech Revives Hike
30% Chance
Warsh leans into the stronger inflation readings and argues that policy may need additional firming soon. Traders rebuild October hike bets, pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on rate-sensitive equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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