Possible scenario
Dovish Pause Signal
20% Chance
Warsh argues that policy restraint is now feeding through to hiring and credit conditions. Markets interpret the speech as a soft pause signal, lowering near-term rate expectations and supporting risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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