Possible scenario
Retaliation Stays Contained
30% Chance
Washington and Jerusalem respond to Iran’s Kharg Island claim with targeted military pressure but stop short of a campaign to topple Iran’s command structure. Both sides signal resolve while leaving room for Oman and Qatar to keep deconfliction channels open.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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