Possible scenario
Hormuz Closure Hardens
35% Chance
Iran treats the Kharg Island operation as proof it can deny access to the Gulf while absorbing U.S. and Israeli strikes. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or severely constrained, keeping tanker insurance, naval escort requirements, and oil prices under acute pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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