Possible scenario
Regulatory Friction Emerges
20% Chance
Regulators do not reverse the broader move toward tokenized settlement, but they slow implementation with new supervisory expectations. Broker-dealers face additional requirements around stablecoin reserves, customer asset segregation, operational resilience, and disclosures for 24/7 settlement workflows.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Technology -0.6%
Tickers
- SOFI-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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