Possible scenario
Prolonged China Weakness
32% Chance
The boycott overlaps with already weak Chinese luxury demand, extending pressure from social media into store visits and online conversion rates. Peers with high China exposure face valuation pressure as investors revisit 2027 growth assumptions.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.0%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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