Possible scenario
Boycott Contained
38% Chance
LVMH moves quickly with localized apologies, influencer outreach and tighter review of China-facing campaigns. The boycott fades from social platforms before it meaningfully damages the wider luxury sector, though near-term Chinese store traffic remains soft.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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