Possible scenario
Managed Pressure on Iran
25% Chance
Washington and Gulf partners respond to Qatar’s statement with sanctions, military deployments and intelligence sharing rather than immediate kinetic escalation. Iran and aligned militias answer rhetorically or through limited cyber and proxy activity, keeping oil-risk premia elevated but below crisis levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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